Matrix: Old Thinking → New Thinking
Transformation Framework
This chapter presents the transformation from old to new thinking about military industrial policy. It is the negative narrative — what we must phase out and replace.
| Domein | Oud frame | Nieuw frame |
|---|---|---|
| Goal & success metric | Counting platforms ("how many drones?") | Effect & surge capacity ("what effect, how quickly to scale?") |
| Air/sea logic | BVLOS/VLOS/HLOS (pilot framing) | SLOS-DAA / ELOS-COOP / GEO-ASSURED / PROC-SEG (performance-based) |
| Procurement | Buy X platforms for €Y | Ecosystem-SLA: availability, MTTR, time-to-surge |
| Financing | Government budget, slow cycles | Capital markets (Zuidas), capacity credits, availability fees |
| Tech sovereignty | Make everything ourselves (protectionism) | Open architectures, multi-vendor, no vendor lock-in |
| Supply chain | Black box, single points of failure | Tier-2 visibility, alternative suppliers, digital twins |
| Prioritisation | Democratic ("everyone equal") | L1-L4: Fast movers → slow/test → civil/SAR → drones |
| Industrial base | National champions, silos | JEF ecosystem, cross-border specialisation |
| Time horizon | 5-10 year procurement cycles | Quarterly iterations, time-to-surge ≤ 6 weeks |
| Dual-use | Separated (civil vs. military) | Integrated (Effects Tech Layer cross-domain) |
Domain-specific Transformations
1. Goal & Success Metric
Old Frame
"How many platforms do we have?"
Focus on inputs (number of drones, tanks, ships) rather than outputs (effects achieved).
Problems:
- No relationship between numbers and operational effectiveness
- Peacetime inventory ≠ wartime needs
- No incentive for efficiency
Example:
"The Netherlands has 100 drones." But: What is the effect? How many km² coverage? How quickly can we scale to 1000?
New Frame
"What effect do we want, and how quickly can we scale?"
Focus on effects (ISR coverage, area denial) and surge capacity (time-to-surge).
KPIs:
- ISR coverage: km², resolution, refresh rate
- Area denial: km², response time
- Time-to-surge: ≤ 6 weeks for 10x production
Example:
"We have 24/7 ISR coverage over 10,000 km² Baltic with ≤ 6 weeks surge to 10x capacity."
2. Air/sea Logic
Old Frame
BVLOS / VLOS / HLOS (pilot framing)
This frame comes from manned aviation and is dominated by pilots protecting their monopoly.
Problems:
- BVLOS (Beyond Visual Line of Sight) = irrelevant for military (everything is "beyond")
- VLOS (Visual Line of Sight) = irrelevant for autonomous systems
- HLOS (Human Line of Sight) = nonsense term, framed by pilot lobby
- Focus on visibility rather than performance
Why wrong? These terms were invented by the established order (pilots, air traffic control) to restrict new tech with old rules.
New Frame
Performance-based modes:
- SLOS-DAA (Sensor Line of Sight + Detect & Avoid)
- ELOS-COOP (Electronic Line of Sight, cooperative)
- GEO-ASSURED (Geographically/temporally assured)
- PROC-SEG (Procedurally segregated)
Focus: What the system can do (sensor range, cooperative awareness) rather than where the pilot is.
See: 09 — Performance Modes for details.
3. Procurement
Old Frame
"Buy X platforms for €Y"
Traditional procurement:
- Long cycles (5-10 years)
- Fixed spec (no iteration)
- Vendor lock-in (proprietary)
- Pay for platforms, not effects
New Frame
Ecosystem-SLAs: Availability, MTTR, Time-to-surge
Outcome-based contracts:
- Pay for effects + readiness
- Availability fees (surge insurance)
- Capacity credits (prepaid production)
- Iteration speed (quarterly updates)
Example:
Old: Buy 100 drones for €5M
New: Buy 24/7 ISR coverage with ≥95% availability,
≤4h MTTR, ≤6 weeks surge, for €20M/year
4. Financing
Old Frame
Government budget, slow cycles
Problems:
- Limited budgets
- Multi-year appropriations (rigid)
- No access to private capital
- Export credit agencies (ITAR restrictions)
New Frame
Capital markets (Zuidas), capacity credits, availability fees
Dual-use tech gains access to capital markets:
- IPO (Euronext)
- Private equity
- Venture capital
Why?
- Dual revenue (civil + military)
- Larger TAM
- Strategic importance (economic security)
See: 07 — Capital Markets Zuidas
5. Tech Sovereignty
Old Frame
"Make everything ourselves" (protectionism)
Misinterpretation of strategic autonomy:
- Dutch/European components mandatory
- Protectionist measures
- Vendor lock-in (national champions)
Result: More expensive, slower, less innovation.
New Frame
Open architectures, multi-vendor, no vendor lock-in
Strategic autonomy ≠ making everything ourselves.
Strategic autonomy means:
- ✅ Open interfaces (NATO STANAG, open APIs)
- ✅ Multi-vendor ecosystems (no lock-in)
- ✅ Source transparency where critical
- ✅ Alternative suppliers (supply chain resilience)
- ❌ Not: Developing everything ourselves
Example:
Sensor module:
├─ Interface: Open API (NATO STANAG 4677)
├─ Vendors: NL (Thales), SE (Saab), UK (Leonardo)
└─ Buyer freedom: Switch vendor without platform redesign
6. Supply Chain
Old Frame
"Black box, single points of failure"
Current supply chains:
- No visibility beyond Tier-1
- Geographic concentration (Taiwan semiconductors)
- No alternative suppliers
- Opaque lead times
New Frame
Tier-2 visibility, alternative suppliers, digital twins
Supply chain transparency:
- Digital twins (track components)
- Tier-2/Tier-3 visibility
- Risk scoring (geopolitical, climate)
- Alternative suppliers pre-qualified
Example:
Edge AI processor:
├─ Primary: NXP (NL) — TSMC (TW) fab ⚠️ geopolitical risk
├─ Alternative: Intel (US/EU fabs) — lower risk
└─ Lead time: 12 weeks (primary), 16 weeks (alternative)
7. Prioritisation
Old Frame
"Democratic — everyone equal"
Airspace is treated as if all users are equal:
- Hobbyists
- Commercial drones
- Military fast movers
Result: Gridlock, nobody gets priority.
New Frame
L1-L4 Prioritisation: Fast movers first
Hierarchy:
- L1: Fast movers (F-35, Eurofighter) — always priority
- L2: Slow movers + test (helicopters, prototypes)
- L3: Civil + SAR (ambulance, search & rescue)
- L4: Drones (commercial, recreational)
See: 10 — L1-L4 Prioritisation
8. Industrial Base
Old Frame
"National champions, silos"
Each country protects its own defence industry:
- NL: Thales, Damen
- SE: Saab
- UK: BAE, Leonardo
- FR: Dassault, Naval Group
Result: Duplication, vendor lock-in, no economies of scale.
New Frame
JEF ecosystem, cross-border specialisation
Specialisation per country:
| Country | Specialisation |
|---|---|
| UK | Sensors, AI, satcom |
| NL | Semiconductors, photonics, Zuidas finance |
| SE | Defence platforms, radar |
| FI | Drones, autonomy |
| NO | Energy, maritime |
| DK | Integration, logistics |
Result: Economies of scale, interoperability, no vendor lock-in.
9. Time Horizon
Old Frame
"5-10 year procurement cycles"
Traditional timelines:
- Requirements: 1-2 years
- Design: 2-3 years
- Procurement: 1-2 years
- Delivery: 2-3 years
- Total: 6-10 years
By the time of delivery: Tech is obsolete.
New Frame
Quarterly iterations, time-to-surge ≤ 6 weeks
Agile approach:
- Software updates: monthly
- Hardware iterations: quarterly
- Surge production: ≤ 6 weeks
Example:
Q1: Deploy baseline ISR (EO sensors)
Q2: Add IR sensors (night capability)
Q3: AI-edge upgrade (object detection)
Q4: Mesh networking (swarm coordination)
10. Dual-use
Old Frame
"Separated (civil vs. military)"
Civil and military tech are treated as separate worlds:
- Different standards
- Different supply chains
- Different financing
Result: Miss opportunities for scale + innovation.
New Frame
Integrated (Effects Tech Layer cross-domain)
Effects Tech Layer works cross-domain:
- Comms: 5G private (civil) = tactical mesh (military)
- Sensors: Agriculture mapping (civil) = ISR (military)
- Edge AI: Autonomous cars (civil) = drone autonomy (military)
- Batteries: EVs (civil) = drone endurance (military)
Result: Larger TAM, faster innovation, economies of scale.
Transition Strategy
How to Move from Old to New?
Phased approach:
Phase 1: Pilot Projects (Year 1)
- 1-2 ecosystem-SLAs (e.g., Baltic ISR)
- Capacity credits experiment (€50M)
- Open architecture demonstrators
Phase 2: Scale (Year 2-3)
- JEF-wide rollout of ecosystem-SLAs
- Zuidas dual-use investment fund (€500M)
- Performance-mode framework adoption
Phase 3: Institutionalise (Year 4+)
- Default = ecosystem-SLAs (old model exception)
- Zuidas dual-use index (Euronext)
- JEF supply chain transparency platform
Next: 09 — DUOS Critique